Hezb'allah's coup d'etat
Who is in control in Lebanon?
If the last few weeks have shown us anything, it's that Hezb'allah has moved the quickest to begin the rebuilding process, to compensate civilians for their destroyed homes, and gaining the confidence of the majority of the population in Lebanon - all while the government looks bewildered and impotent. Hassan Nasrallah is a rock star, and his group is at No.1.
Hassan Nasrallah appears on television speaking as if he is the President, while the pro-Syrian President, Emile Lahoud, seems to be invisible and mute. The Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, had the unenviable task of pleading for the bombing to stop at the comical Rome Conference, those pleas falling on deaf ears. He was more successful in Sweden obtaining pledges for reconstruction aid - powerless to stop the bombing, and successful only to a degree and after the bombing had stopped.
In its first meeting since the end of the war, the "March 14 Forces" (represented by key anti-Syrian leaders) stated that "we refuse to turn Lebanon into a battleground used by Iran to improve its negotiating conditions with the international community about its regional role and by the Syrian regime to exercise its hegemony over Lebanon".
In response, Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah accused politicians of "throwing stones at the resistance and accusing it of instigating the war", and continued "what saddens us is that the political class in general and many of those who are in contact with religious figures are not aware of the Israeli threat". He went on to say that "the resistance did not launch this war, but retaliated against a premeditated US-Israeli plan. The resistance did not monopolize the decision of war, but took charge of the defense of its people when the government washed its hands of it," he added.
Hassan Nasrallah has made similar statements recently, even going so far as to say that had they realised that Israel would attack Lebanon so savagely, they would never have kidnapped the two Israeli soldiers.
This is false. The whole world saw Israel's response when the Palestinians kidnapped the Israeli soldier in June, a month prior to the Hezb'allah kidnappings. Ehud Olmert, as a new President , needed to appear strong and didn't disappoint by smashing the Occupied Territories. Do Hezb'allah really think the Lebanese are so naive as to believe that Hezb'allah "wasn't expecting" a reaction from Israel?
Listen: Hezb'allah have been extremely clever. I've said previously that I agree that Israel and the US had a ready-made plan to launch an offensive aimed at rooting out Hezb'allah once and for all, and were waiting for a trigger event to justify it. But for Hezb'allah to claim that it "didn't expect" war is an affront to anyone's intelligence. Hezb'allah has been training for and arming itself for war since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.
No-one won the war. The Israeli army was humiliated. Hezb'allah have retreated north of the Litani, but still have their weapons. Hezb'allah still holds the two soldiers it kidnapped. Israeli soldiers and citizens are dead, as are Lebanese citizens and Hezb'allah fighters (outweighing the Israeli dead by a factor of 10). Almost a million Lebanese citizens were displaced from their homes, entire villages have been destroyed, as have roads, bridges, factories, farmland and crops, and infrastructure. The economy is shattered, and Lebanons already USD 40 billion debt has been added to by at least another USD 3 billion. Hezb'allah have appeared the most prepared in its military responses and its aid (sourced from Iran) to rebuild and compensate, while the Prime Minister has had to resort to begging from other countries. If you had had your home destroyed by Israeli planes and needed financial assistance,, who would you admire the most?
Sure, Israel pressed the trigger on the bombs that caused all this destruction, and that is unforgiveable. (I will leave to one side Israel's blockade of the ports and airports for 3 weeks after the ceasefire, and its crippling effect on the economy, for discussion in another post). But for any Lebanese to hail "The Resistance" as heroes when that same resistance knowingly bought war to Lebanon to serve its own agenda (and the agenda of its Iranian and Syrian masters) is not just unbelieveable, it's treasonable.
The Lebanese politicians are now scrambling to restore order, and to make up the political ground they have lost to Hezb'allah. There's a race to see who will replace the current President when he eventually leaves his post. Certain politicians who are eligible for the Presidency under the Consitition will say anything and support anyone they can in order to secure the Presidency for themselves, and those who have supported Hezb'allah prior to the war may well find their support rewarded.
These are dangerous times for Lebanon. Everyone should be concerned with such widespread support for Hezb'allah, and for a new President who may well owe them a favour.
If the last few weeks have shown us anything, it's that Hezb'allah has moved the quickest to begin the rebuilding process, to compensate civilians for their destroyed homes, and gaining the confidence of the majority of the population in Lebanon - all while the government looks bewildered and impotent. Hassan Nasrallah is a rock star, and his group is at No.1.
Hassan Nasrallah appears on television speaking as if he is the President, while the pro-Syrian President, Emile Lahoud, seems to be invisible and mute. The Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, had the unenviable task of pleading for the bombing to stop at the comical Rome Conference, those pleas falling on deaf ears. He was more successful in Sweden obtaining pledges for reconstruction aid - powerless to stop the bombing, and successful only to a degree and after the bombing had stopped.
In its first meeting since the end of the war, the "March 14 Forces" (represented by key anti-Syrian leaders) stated that "we refuse to turn Lebanon into a battleground used by Iran to improve its negotiating conditions with the international community about its regional role and by the Syrian regime to exercise its hegemony over Lebanon".
In response, Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah accused politicians of "throwing stones at the resistance and accusing it of instigating the war", and continued "what saddens us is that the political class in general and many of those who are in contact with religious figures are not aware of the Israeli threat". He went on to say that "the resistance did not launch this war, but retaliated against a premeditated US-Israeli plan. The resistance did not monopolize the decision of war, but took charge of the defense of its people when the government washed its hands of it," he added.
Hassan Nasrallah has made similar statements recently, even going so far as to say that had they realised that Israel would attack Lebanon so savagely, they would never have kidnapped the two Israeli soldiers.
This is false. The whole world saw Israel's response when the Palestinians kidnapped the Israeli soldier in June, a month prior to the Hezb'allah kidnappings. Ehud Olmert, as a new President , needed to appear strong and didn't disappoint by smashing the Occupied Territories. Do Hezb'allah really think the Lebanese are so naive as to believe that Hezb'allah "wasn't expecting" a reaction from Israel?
Listen: Hezb'allah have been extremely clever. I've said previously that I agree that Israel and the US had a ready-made plan to launch an offensive aimed at rooting out Hezb'allah once and for all, and were waiting for a trigger event to justify it. But for Hezb'allah to claim that it "didn't expect" war is an affront to anyone's intelligence. Hezb'allah has been training for and arming itself for war since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.
No-one won the war. The Israeli army was humiliated. Hezb'allah have retreated north of the Litani, but still have their weapons. Hezb'allah still holds the two soldiers it kidnapped. Israeli soldiers and citizens are dead, as are Lebanese citizens and Hezb'allah fighters (outweighing the Israeli dead by a factor of 10). Almost a million Lebanese citizens were displaced from their homes, entire villages have been destroyed, as have roads, bridges, factories, farmland and crops, and infrastructure. The economy is shattered, and Lebanons already USD 40 billion debt has been added to by at least another USD 3 billion. Hezb'allah have appeared the most prepared in its military responses and its aid (sourced from Iran) to rebuild and compensate, while the Prime Minister has had to resort to begging from other countries. If you had had your home destroyed by Israeli planes and needed financial assistance,, who would you admire the most?
Sure, Israel pressed the trigger on the bombs that caused all this destruction, and that is unforgiveable. (I will leave to one side Israel's blockade of the ports and airports for 3 weeks after the ceasefire, and its crippling effect on the economy, for discussion in another post). But for any Lebanese to hail "The Resistance" as heroes when that same resistance knowingly bought war to Lebanon to serve its own agenda (and the agenda of its Iranian and Syrian masters) is not just unbelieveable, it's treasonable.
The Lebanese politicians are now scrambling to restore order, and to make up the political ground they have lost to Hezb'allah. There's a race to see who will replace the current President when he eventually leaves his post. Certain politicians who are eligible for the Presidency under the Consitition will say anything and support anyone they can in order to secure the Presidency for themselves, and those who have supported Hezb'allah prior to the war may well find their support rewarded.
These are dangerous times for Lebanon. Everyone should be concerned with such widespread support for Hezb'allah, and for a new President who may well owe them a favour.
posted by John @ 10:35 AM
2 Comments:
At 2:51 PM,
Anonymous said…
Hi John,
Tell me please if my fears are far fetched because I have this awkward feeling that as things are looking the following is, at least, likely to happen: Widespread support of Hezbola may lead to them doing quite well in the next elections, they will then argue that the country wants them to rule (them, the only real defensors of the homeland (!))but the constitution doesn't allow them to, as a populist movement they'll start fighting for the "voice of the people to be heard", civil war may start again, and this time they know they can win... Lebanon turns into a sad, reactionary, shiite (I like that spelling) country, call it Iran II.
Amaya
At 12:38 PM,
John said…
Thanks for your post, Amaya. I don't think your fears are far-fetched (see my "What sort of society do the Lebanese want to live in") post. The Lebanese Consitution states that the President must be Maronite, the Prime Minister must be Sunni, and the Speaker of the House must be Shi'a. Logically, Hezb'allah's massive popularity boost following its performance in the war would translate into more seats in Parliament - a fact that those who have their eyes on power in Lebanon are keen to exploit by calling for early elections.
The other, more sinister, danger is that Hezb'allah still has its weapons and if it felt the time was right, could stage an armed, rather than an ideological, coup d'etat.
Where that would leave the non=Shi'a majority in Lebanon is anyone's guess, but my guess would be "uncomfortable".
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